Tarek Momen v Ramy Ashour (Sun 25 Feb 2018)
Match won by Tarek Momen. Result: 10-12,11-6,11-2,11-5.
Starting level for
Tarek Momen:
51,224, level confidence: 77%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Ramy Ashour:
58,389, level confidence: 78%. Set manually.
Ramy Ashour to win as he is currently playing
14% better than Tarek Momen.
Tarek Momen won 75% of the games and 63% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 72% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Tarek Momen played
41% better than Ramy Ashour in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Tarek Momen actually played at a level of
64,827 and Ramy Ashour at a level of
46,137. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 27% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Tarek Momen changes to +25% and Ramy Ashour changes to -24%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Tarek Momen becomes +4.7% and for Ramy Ashour becomes -4.6%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Windy City Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Tarek Momen: 88%, Ramy Ashour: 88%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Tarek Momen: 70%, Ramy Ashour: 70%.
A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Tarek Momen:
53,376, level confidence: 70%.
Final level for Ramy Ashour:
55,959, level confidence: 70%.