Ramy Ashour v Tsz Fung Yip (Sat 24 Feb 2018)
Match won by Ramy Ashour. Result: 11-9,11-7,11-7.
Starting level for
Ramy Ashour:
58,616, level confidence: 69%.
Starting level for
Tsz Fung Yip:
35,625, level confidence: 77%. Set manually.
Ramy Ashour to win as he is currently playing
65% better than Tsz Fung Yip.
Ramy Ashour won all of the games and 59% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 43% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Ramy Ashour played
47% better than Tsz Fung Yip in this match.
In this case, Ramy Ashour played at level 53,522 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Ramy Ashour would normally have been playing at level 54,597 (based on typical behaviour), Tsz Fung Yip played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 2%.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 1.6% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Ramy Ashour changes to 0% and Tsz Fung Yip changes to +1.4%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Ramy Ashour becomes 0% and for Tsz Fung Yip becomes +0.5%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Windy City Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Ramy Ashour: 83%, Tsz Fung Yip: 88%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Ramy Ashour: 79%, Tsz Fung Yip: 83%.
A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Ramy Ashour:
58,389, level confidence: 79%.
Final level for Tsz Fung Yip:
36,012, level confidence: 83%.