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Jahangir Hussain v Paul Carnero (Thu 01 Mar 2018)

Match won by Jahangir Hussain. Result: 3-2.

Starting level for Jahangir Hussain: 4,448, level confidence: 81%. Set manually.
Starting level for Paul Carnero: 5,937, level confidence: 73%. Set manually.
Paul Carnero to win as he is currently playing 33% better than Jahangir Hussain.

Jahangir Hussain won 60% of the games. There are no points scores.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This result only has game scores. Less accurate but we can still work with it.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Jahangir Hussain actually played at a level of 5,390 and Paul Carnero at a level of 4,900. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 21% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 18% and 18% respectively.
Without points scores, the adjustment has been reduced to 16%.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Jahangir Hussain changes to +15% and Paul Carnero changes to -16%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Jahangir Hussain becomes +5.2% and for Paul Carnero becomes -5.3%.

Given Jahangir Hussain's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 42% has been applied to his level change.

Given Paul Carnero's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 63% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 50% for 'Surrey Colets Internal League' so the adjustment for Jahangir Hussain is +1.8% and for Paul Carnero is -1.6%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Jahangir Hussain: 90%, Paul Carnero: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Jahangir Hussain: 74%, Paul Carnero: 71%.

A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Jahangir Hussain: 4,541, level confidence: 74%.
Final level for Paul Carnero: 5,861, level confidence: 71%.