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Steven Davies v Ryan Pescod (Mon 26 Feb 2018)

Match won by Steven Davies. Result: 15-8,15-8,15-10.

Starting level for Steven Davies: 8,038, level confidence: 83%. Set manually.
Starting level for Ryan Pescod: 2,343, level confidence: 53%.
Steven Davies to win as he is currently playing 243% better than Ryan Pescod.

Steven Davies won all of the games and 63% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 73% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Steven Davies played 73% better than Ryan Pescod in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Steven Davies was taking it easy by anything up to 29%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 3,724 and 8,038 without affecting his level.

In this case, Steven Davies played at level 4,812 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Steven Davies would normally have been playing at level 5,710 (based on typical behaviour), Ryan Pescod played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 19%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 9.7% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Steven Davies changes to 0% and Ryan Pescod changes to +9.7%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Steven Davies becomes 0% and for Ryan Pescod becomes +4.6%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Bedfordshire League 2017/2018' so the adjustment for Steven Davies is 0% and for Ryan Pescod is +3.4%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Steven Davies: 91%, Ryan Pescod: 73%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Steven Davies: 65%, Ryan Pescod: 52%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Steven Davies: 8,026, level confidence: 65%.
Final level for Ryan Pescod: 2,419, level confidence: 52%.