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Shaun Smith v Barrie McLelland (Tue 27 Feb 2018)

Match won by Barrie McLelland. Result: 9-6,4-9,5-9,8-10.

Starting level for Shaun Smith: 1,900, level confidence: 82%. Set manually.
Starting level for Barrie McLelland: 1,801, level confidence: 90%. Set manually.
Shaun Smith to win as he is currently playing 5% better than Barrie McLelland.

Barrie McLelland won 75% of the games and 57% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 16% (english scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Barrie McLelland played 22% better than Shaun Smith in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Barrie McLelland actually played at a level of 2,043 and Shaun Smith at a level of 1,675. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 13% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Barrie McLelland changes to +12% and Shaun Smith changes to -13%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Barrie McLelland becomes +5.8% and for Shaun Smith becomes -6.2%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Leicestershire Mens League 2017/18' so the adjustment for Barrie McLelland is +4.4% and for Shaun Smith is -4.6%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Barrie McLelland: 95%, Shaun Smith: 91%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Barrie McLelland: 84%, Shaun Smith: 80%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Shaun Smith: 1,814, level confidence: 80%.
Final level for Barrie McLelland: 1,877, level confidence: 84%.