Jack McElvenny v Marcus Hayes (Mon 26 Feb 2018)
Match won by Marcus Hayes. Result: 14-12,11-9,5-11,4-11,7-11.
Starting level for
Jack McElvenny:
5,762, level confidence: 70%.
Starting level for
Marcus Hayes:
8,285, level confidence: 65%.
Marcus Hayes to win as he is currently playing
44% better than Jack McElvenny.
Marcus Hayes won 60% of the games and 57% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 32% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Marcus Hayes played
15% better than Jack McElvenny in this match.
As Marcus Hayes has played below his allowed range at 7,090, his level reduction is 6.6% before damping. On the assumption that Marcus Hayes would normally have been playing at level 7,954 (based on typical behaviour), Jack McElvenny played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 9.4%.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 5.5% and 7.7% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Marcus Hayes changes to -5.5% and Jack McElvenny changes to +7.3%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Marcus Hayes becomes -2.2% and for Jack McElvenny becomes +2.9%.
Given Marcus Hayes's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 12% has been applied to his level change.
Given Jack McElvenny's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 3.2% has been applied to his level change.
Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Warwickshire Winter League 2017/18' so the adjustment for Marcus Hayes is -1.5% and for Jack McElvenny is +2.1%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Marcus Hayes: 81%, Jack McElvenny: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Marcus Hayes: 72%, Jack McElvenny: 75%.
A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Jack McElvenny:
5,874, level confidence: 75%.
Final level for Marcus Hayes:
8,153, level confidence: 72%.