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Paul Stroud v Chris Hall (Mon 26 Feb 2018)

Match won by Chris Hall. Result: 4-11,6-11,6-11.

Starting level for Paul Stroud: 7,408, level confidence: 63%.
Starting level for Chris Hall: 18,923, level confidence: 59%.
Chris Hall to win as he is currently playing 155% better than Paul Stroud.

Chris Hall won all of the games and 67% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 106% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Chris Hall played 106% better than Paul Stroud in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Chris Hall was taking it easy by anything up to 19%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 11,681 and 18,923 without affecting his level.

In this case, Chris Hall played at level 15,279 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. Consequently, Paul Stroud is considered to have not played better than expected and his level will also not be adjusted.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Chris Hall: 77%, Paul Stroud: 79%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Chris Hall: 69%, Paul Stroud: 71%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Paul Stroud: 7,397, level confidence: 71%.
Final level for Chris Hall: 18,895, level confidence: 69%.