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Stuart Lipscombe v Ollie Whiting (Mon 19 Feb 2018)

Match won by Stuart Lipscombe. Result: 15-2,15-5,15-9.

Starting level for Stuart Lipscombe: 3,736, level confidence: 74%. Set manually.
Starting level for Ollie Whiting: 2,080, level confidence: 75%. Set manually.
Stuart Lipscombe to win as he is currently playing 80% better than Ollie Whiting.

Stuart Lipscombe won all of the games and 74% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 181% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Stuart Lipscombe played 181% better than Ollie Whiting in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Stuart Lipscombe actually played at a level of 4,675 and Ollie Whiting at a level of 1,662. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 25% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 18% and 18% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Stuart Lipscombe changes to +18% and Ollie Whiting changes to -18%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Stuart Lipscombe becomes +6.5% and for Ollie Whiting becomes -7.7%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Suffolk Winter League 2017/18' so the adjustment for Stuart Lipscombe is +4.8% and for Ollie Whiting is -5.7%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Stuart Lipscombe: 86%, Ollie Whiting: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Stuart Lipscombe: 69%, Ollie Whiting: 69%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Stuart Lipscombe: 3,911, level confidence: 69%.
Final level for Ollie Whiting: 1,965, level confidence: 69%.