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Steven Davies v Luke Bishop (Sat 24 Feb 2018)

Match won by Luke Bishop. Result: 8-11,9-11,11-9,8-11.

Starting level for Steven Davies: 7,895, level confidence: 81%. Set manually.
Starting level for Luke Bishop: 11,119, level confidence: 92%. Set manually.
Luke Bishop to win as he is currently playing 41% better than Steven Davies.

Luke Bishop won 75% of the games and 54% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 17% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Luke Bishop played 22% better than Steven Davies in this match.

As Luke Bishop has played below his allowed range at 9,985, his level reduction is 3.5% before damping. On the assumption that Luke Bishop would normally have been playing at level 10,718 (based on typical behaviour), Steven Davies played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 5.4%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 2.9% and 4.5% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Luke Bishop changes to -2.6% and Steven Davies changes to +4.5%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Luke Bishop becomes -1.2% and for Steven Davies becomes +2%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior Intercounty 2017/18' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Luke Bishop: 96%, Steven Davies: 90%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Luke Bishop: 89%, Steven Davies: 84%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Steven Davies: 8,038, level confidence: 84%.
Final level for Luke Bishop: 10,967, level confidence: 89%.