Barrie McLelland v Nick Sibly (Mon 26 Feb 2018)
Match won by Barrie McLelland. Result: 9-11,11-7,11-9,8-11,11-5.
Starting level for
Barrie McLelland:
1,788, level confidence: 82%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Nick Sibly:
1,623, level confidence: 69%.
Barrie McLelland to win as he is currently playing
10% better than Nick Sibly.
Barrie McLelland won 60% of the games and 54% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 16% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Barrie McLelland played
12% better than Nick Sibly in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Barrie McLelland actually played at a level of
1,799 and Nick Sibly at a level of
1,613. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 0.6% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Barrie McLelland changes to +0.5% and Nick Sibly changes to -0.6%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Barrie McLelland becomes +0.4% and for Nick Sibly becomes -0.5%.
Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Warwickshire Winter League 2017/18' so the adjustment for Barrie McLelland is +0.3% and for Nick Sibly is -0.4%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Barrie McLelland: 91%, Nick Sibly: 83%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Barrie McLelland: 90%, Nick Sibly: 83%.
A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Barrie McLelland:
1,791, level confidence: 90%.
Final level for Nick Sibly:
1,615, level confidence: 83%.