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Steven Davies v Owen Whitfield (Sat 24 Feb 2018)

Match won by Owen Whitfield. Result: 11-3,11-2,2-11,6-11,7-11.

Starting level for Steven Davies: 8,251, level confidence: 72%. Set manually.
Starting level for Owen Whitfield: 6,233, level confidence: 82%. Set manually.
Steven Davies to win as he is currently playing 32% better than Owen Whitfield.

Owen Whitfield won 60% of the games and 51% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 3% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Owen Whitfield played 8% better than Steven Davies in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Owen Whitfield actually played at a level of 7,459 and Steven Davies at a level of 6,895. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 20% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 17% and 17% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Owen Whitfield changes to +15% and Steven Davies changes to -17%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Owen Whitfield becomes +4.7% and for Steven Davies becomes -5%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior Intercounty 2017/18' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Owen Whitfield: 91%, Steven Davies: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Owen Whitfield: 76%, Steven Davies: 71%.

A final adjustment of +1.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Steven Davies: 8,041, level confidence: 71%.
Final level for Owen Whitfield: 6,520, level confidence: 76%.