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Paul Stroud v Michael Albinson (Sat 24 Feb 2018)

Match won by Paul Stroud. Result: 11-6,11-3,11-2.

Starting level for Paul Stroud: 6,985, level confidence: 89%. Set manually.
Starting level for Michael Albinson: 5,078, level confidence: 56%.
Paul Stroud to win as he is currently playing 38% better than Michael Albinson.

Paul Stroud won all of the games and 75% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 200% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Paul Stroud played 200% better than Michael Albinson in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Paul Stroud actually played at a level of 10,315 and Michael Albinson at a level of 3,438. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 48% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 39% and 39% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Paul Stroud changes to +25% and Michael Albinson changes to -39%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Paul Stroud becomes +7.1% and for Michael Albinson becomes -11%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior Intercounty 2017/18' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Michael Albinson is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Michael Albinson has already dropped 8.2% since starting this event at level 5493. The amount a player can drop in a single event is limited to 11.1% so Michael Albinson's drop for this match has been limited to 3%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Paul Stroud: 94%, Michael Albinson: 75%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Paul Stroud: 64%, Michael Albinson: 51%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Paul Stroud: 7,469, level confidence: 64%.
Final level for Michael Albinson: 4,944, level confidence: 51%.