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Paul Stroud v Michael Mattimore (Sat 24 Feb 2018)

Match won by Michael Mattimore. Result: 8-11,8-11,11-3,5-11.

Starting level for Paul Stroud: 6,767, level confidence: 84%. Set manually.
Starting level for Michael Mattimore: 10,430, level confidence: 72%. Set manually.
Michael Mattimore to win as he is currently playing 54% better than Paul Stroud.

Michael Mattimore won 75% of the games and 53% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 13% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Michael Mattimore played 21% better than Paul Stroud in this match.

As Michael Mattimore has played below his allowed range at 8,739, his level reduction is 6.8% before damping. On the assumption that Michael Mattimore would normally have been playing at level 9,868 (based on typical behaviour), Paul Stroud played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 9.8%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 5.5% and 7.9% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Michael Mattimore changes to -5.5% and Paul Stroud changes to +6.7%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Michael Mattimore becomes -2.1% and for Paul Stroud becomes +2.6%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior Intercounty 2017/18' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Michael Mattimore: 85%, Paul Stroud: 92%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Michael Mattimore: 75%, Paul Stroud: 81%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Paul Stroud: 6,933, level confidence: 81%.
Final level for Michael Mattimore: 10,201, level confidence: 75%.