Rex Hedrick v Rhys Dowling (Sat 17 Feb 2018)
Match won by Rex Hedrick. Result: 11-3,11-6,11-6.
Starting level for
Rex Hedrick:
30,271, level confidence: 62%.
Starting level for
Rhys Dowling:
18,093, level confidence: 76%. Set manually.
Rex Hedrick to win as he is currently playing
67% better than Rhys Dowling.
Rex Hedrick won all of the games and 69% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 120% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Rex Hedrick played
120% better than Rhys Dowling in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Rex Hedrick actually played at a level of
34,712 and Rhys Dowling at a level of
15,778. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 15% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 11% and 11% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Rex Hedrick changes to +11% and Rhys Dowling changes to -9%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Rex Hedrick becomes +2.8% and for Rhys Dowling becomes -2.6%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior Australian Nationals' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Rex Hedrick: 79%, Rhys Dowling: 87%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Rex Hedrick: 69%, Rhys Dowling: 76%.
Final level for Rex Hedrick:
31,108, level confidence: 69%.
Final level for Rhys Dowling:
17,631, level confidence: 76%.