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Rex Hedrick v Rhys Dowling (Sat 17 Feb 2018)

Match won by Rex Hedrick. Result: 11-3,11-6,11-6.

Starting level for Rex Hedrick: 30,271, level confidence: 62%.
Starting level for Rhys Dowling: 18,093, level confidence: 76%. Set manually.
Rex Hedrick to win as he is currently playing 67% better than Rhys Dowling.

Rex Hedrick won all of the games and 69% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 120% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Rex Hedrick played 120% better than Rhys Dowling in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Rex Hedrick actually played at a level of 34,712 and Rhys Dowling at a level of 15,778. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 15% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 11% and 11% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Rex Hedrick changes to +11% and Rhys Dowling changes to -9%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Rex Hedrick becomes +2.8% and for Rhys Dowling becomes -2.6%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior Australian Nationals' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Rex Hedrick: 79%, Rhys Dowling: 87%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Rex Hedrick: 69%, Rhys Dowling: 76%.

Final level for Rex Hedrick: 31,108, level confidence: 69%.
Final level for Rhys Dowling: 17,631, level confidence: 76%.