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Rex Hedrick v Courtney West (Fri 16 Feb 2018)

Match won by Rex Hedrick. Result: 11-4,11-5,11-3.

Starting level for Rex Hedrick: 30,034, level confidence: 66%.
Starting level for Courtney West: 6,526, level confidence: 51%.
Rex Hedrick to win as he is currently playing 360% better than Courtney West.

Rex Hedrick won all of the games and 73% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 175% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Rex Hedrick played 175% better than Courtney West in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Rex Hedrick was taking it easy by anything up to 39%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 11,042 and 30,034 without affecting his level.

In this case, Rex Hedrick played at level 18,078 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Rex Hedrick would normally have been playing at level 18,211 (based on typical behaviour), Courtney West played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 0.7%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0%.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Rex Hedrick changes to 0% and Courtney West changes to +0.3%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Rex Hedrick becomes 0% and for Courtney West becomes 0%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior Australian Nationals' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Rex Hedrick: 81%, Courtney West: 72%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Rex Hedrick: 63%, Courtney West: 55%.

Final level for Rex Hedrick: 30,034, level confidence: 63%.
Final level for Courtney West: 6,538, level confidence: 55%.