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Rex Hedrick v Nathan Lindner (Thu 15 Feb 2018)

Match won by Rex Hedrick. Result: 11-4,11-3,11-3.

Starting level for Rex Hedrick: 30,101, level confidence: 79%. Set manually.
Starting level for Nathan Lindner: 5,075, level confidence: 73%. Set manually.
Rex Hedrick to win as he is currently playing 493% better than Nathan Lindner.

Rex Hedrick won all of the games and 77% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 230% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Rex Hedrick played 230% better than Nathan Lindner in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Rex Hedrick was taking it easy by anything up to 47%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 8,459 and 30,101 without affecting his level.

In this case, Rex Hedrick played at level 16,748 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. Consequently, Nathan Lindner is considered to have not played better than expected and his level will also not be adjusted.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Rex Hedrick: 89%, Nathan Lindner: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Rex Hedrick: 66%, Nathan Lindner: 64%.

Final level for Rex Hedrick: 30,101, level confidence: 66%.
Final level for Nathan Lindner: 5,075, level confidence: 64%.