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Lou Van Talligan v Barrie McLelland (Mon 19 Feb 2018)

Match won by Lou Van Talligan. Result: 11-13,8-11,11-7,11-9,12-10.

Starting level for Lou Van Talligan: 2,034, level confidence: 83%. Set manually.
Starting level for Barrie McLelland: 1,718, level confidence: 78%. Set manually.
Lou Van Talligan to win as he is currently playing 18% better than Barrie McLelland.

Lou Van Talligan won 60% of the games and 51% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 6% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Lou Van Talligan played 9% better than Barrie McLelland in this match.

As Lou Van Talligan has played below his allowed range at 1,933, his level reduction is 3.2% before damping. On the assumption that Lou Van Talligan would normally have been playing at level 2,017 (based on typical behaviour), Barrie McLelland played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 3.8%.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Lou Van Talligan changes to -2.8% and Barrie McLelland changes to +3.5%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Lou Van Talligan becomes -2.1% and for Barrie McLelland becomes +2.6%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Warwickshire Winter League 2017/18' so the adjustment for Lou Van Talligan is -1.6% and for Barrie McLelland is +2%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Lou Van Talligan: 91%, Barrie McLelland: 89%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Lou Van Talligan: 88%, Barrie McLelland: 85%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Lou Van Talligan: 1,999, level confidence: 88%.
Final level for Barrie McLelland: 1,749, level confidence: 85%.