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Tony Webb v Marcus Hayes (Thu 15 Feb 2018)

Match won by Tony Webb. Result: 6-11,9-11,13-11,11-9,11-1.

Starting level for Tony Webb: 7,736, level confidence: 80%. Set manually.
Starting level for Marcus Hayes: 8,586, level confidence: 58%.
Marcus Hayes to win as he is currently playing 11% better than Tony Webb.

Tony Webb won 60% of the games and 54% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 16% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Tony Webb played 12% better than Marcus Hayes in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Tony Webb actually played at a level of 8,608 and Marcus Hayes at a level of 7,716. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 11% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Tony Webb changes to +7.8% and Marcus Hayes changes to -10.7%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Tony Webb becomes +2.8% and for Marcus Hayes becomes -3.5%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'British National Masters Championships 2018' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Tony Webb: 89%, Marcus Hayes: 76%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Tony Webb: 80%, Marcus Hayes: 69%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Tony Webb: 7,942, level confidence: 80%.
Final level for Marcus Hayes: 8,286, level confidence: 69%.