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Paul Stroud v Dave Barnett (Thu 15 Feb 2018)

Match won by Dave Barnett. Result: 5-11,7-11,9-11.

Starting level for Paul Stroud: 6,936, level confidence: 82%. Set manually.
Starting level for Dave Barnett: 10,108, level confidence: 72%. Set manually.
Dave Barnett to win as he is currently playing 46% better than Paul Stroud.

Dave Barnett won all of the games and 61% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 57% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Dave Barnett played 56% better than Paul Stroud in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Dave Barnett actually played at a level of 10,473 and Paul Stroud at a level of 6,695. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 3.6% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 3% and 3% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Dave Barnett changes to +3% and Paul Stroud changes to -2.6%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Dave Barnett becomes +1.5% and for Paul Stroud becomes -1.4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'British National Masters Championships 2018' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Dave Barnett: 85%, Paul Stroud: 91%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Dave Barnett: 82%, Paul Stroud: 88%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Paul Stroud: 6,829, level confidence: 88%.
Final level for Dave Barnett: 10,242, level confidence: 82%.