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Keith Timms v Ben Ford (Wed 14 Feb 2018)

Match won by Ben Ford. Result: 3-11,11-8,11-9,9-11,5-11.

Starting level for Keith Timms: 8,686, level confidence: 78%. Set manually.
Starting level for Ben Ford: 14,033, level confidence: 73%. Set manually.
Ben Ford to win as he is currently playing 62% better than Keith Timms.

Ben Ford won 60% of the games and 56% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 28% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Ben Ford played 15% better than Keith Timms in this match.

As Ben Ford has played below his allowed range at 10,965, his level reduction is 10.2% before damping. On the assumption that Ben Ford would normally have been playing at level 13,131 (based on typical behaviour), Keith Timms played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 15%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 7.9% and 12% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Ben Ford changes to -7.9% and Keith Timms changes to +10.8%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Ben Ford becomes -2.5% and for Keith Timms becomes +3.5%.

Given Ben Ford's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 27% has been applied to his level change.

Given Keith Timms's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 13% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Middlesex Seniors League' so the adjustment for Ben Ford is -1.5% and for Keith Timms is +2.3%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Ben Ford: 85%, Keith Timms: 88%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Ben Ford: 72%, Keith Timms: 74%.

A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Keith Timms: 8,907, level confidence: 74%.
Final level for Ben Ford: 13,864, level confidence: 72%.