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Stuart Lipscombe v Colin Griggs (Wed 14 Feb 2018)

Match won by Colin Griggs. Result: 9-11,4-11,7-11.

Starting level for Stuart Lipscombe: 3,942, level confidence: 77%. Set manually.
Starting level for Colin Griggs: 4,812, level confidence: 65%.
Colin Griggs to win as he is currently playing 22% better than Stuart Lipscombe.

Colin Griggs won all of the games and 62% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 65% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Colin Griggs played 65% better than Stuart Lipscombe in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Colin Griggs actually played at a level of 5,595 and Stuart Lipscombe at a level of 3,391. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 16% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Colin Griggs changes to +15% and Stuart Lipscombe changes to -12%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Colin Griggs becomes +5.1% and for Stuart Lipscombe becomes -4.6%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'British National Masters Championships 2018' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Colin Griggs: 80%, Stuart Lipscombe: 88%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Colin Griggs: 69%, Stuart Lipscombe: 76%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Stuart Lipscombe: 3,763, level confidence: 76%.
Final level for Colin Griggs: 5,048, level confidence: 69%.