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Hassan Khalil v Marcus Hayes (Mon 12 Feb 2018)

Match won by Marcus Hayes. Result: 6-11,6-11,7-11.

Starting level for Hassan Khalil: 7,110, level confidence: 82%. Set manually.
Starting level for Marcus Hayes: 8,284, level confidence: 52%.
Marcus Hayes to win as he is currently playing 17% better than Hassan Khalil.

Marcus Hayes won all of the games and 63% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 74% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Marcus Hayes played 74% better than Hassan Khalil in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Marcus Hayes actually played at a level of 10,114 and Hassan Khalil at a level of 5,823. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 22% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Marcus Hayes changes to +20% and Hassan Khalil changes to -12%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Marcus Hayes becomes +5.8% and for Hassan Khalil becomes -3.9%.

Given Marcus Hayes's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 12% has been applied to his level change.

Given Hassan Khalil's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 8.2% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Warwickshire Winter League 2017/18' so the adjustment for Marcus Hayes is +3.8% and for Hassan Khalil is -2.7%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Marcus Hayes: 72%, Hassan Khalil: 91%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Marcus Hayes: 59%, Hassan Khalil: 74%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Hassan Khalil: 6,913, level confidence: 74%.
Final level for Marcus Hayes: 8,590, level confidence: 59%.