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Fergus Richards v Paul Stroud (Mon 12 Feb 2018)

Match won by Fergus Richards. Result: 11-5,9-11,11-3,5-11,14-12.

Starting level for Fergus Richards: 9,336, level confidence: 58%.
Starting level for Paul Stroud: 6,781, level confidence: 86%. Set manually.
Fergus Richards to win as he is currently playing 38% better than Paul Stroud.

Fergus Richards won 60% of the games and 54% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 19% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Fergus Richards played 12% better than Paul Stroud in this match.

As Fergus Richards has played below his allowed range at 8,127, his level reduction is 6.8% before damping. On the assumption that Fergus Richards would normally have been playing at level 9,037 (based on typical behaviour), Paul Stroud played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 9%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 5.7% and 7.6% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Fergus Richards changes to -5.7% and Paul Stroud changes to +5.1%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Fergus Richards becomes -2.2% and for Paul Stroud becomes +2.2%.

Given Fergus Richards's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 15% has been applied to his level change.

Given Paul Stroud's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 7.1% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Warwickshire Winter League 2017/18' so the adjustment for Fergus Richards is -1.4% and for Paul Stroud is +1.5%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Fergus Richards: 76%, Paul Stroud: 92%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Fergus Richards: 69%, Paul Stroud: 83%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Fergus Richards: 9,191, level confidence: 69%.
Final level for Paul Stroud: 6,875, level confidence: 83%.