Omar Abdel Meguid v Rex Hedrick (Thu 08 Feb 2018)
Match won by Omar Abdel Meguid. Result: 11-9,13-11,10-12,11-7.
Starting level for
Omar Abdel Meguid:
34,806, level confidence: 63%.
Starting level for
Rex Hedrick:
30,309, level confidence: 70%.
Omar Abdel Meguid to win as he is currently playing
15% better than Rex Hedrick.
Omar Abdel Meguid won 75% of the games and 54% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 15% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Omar Abdel Meguid played
22% better than Rex Hedrick in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Omar Abdel Meguid actually played at a level of
35,850 and Rex Hedrick at a level of
29,427. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 3% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Omar Abdel Meguid changes to +2.8% and Rex Hedrick changes to -2.5%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Omar Abdel Meguid becomes +1.1% and for Rex Hedrick becomes -1%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Indian Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Omar Abdel Meguid: 79%, Rex Hedrick: 83%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Omar Abdel Meguid: 77%, Rex Hedrick: 81%.
A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Omar Abdel Meguid:
34,978, level confidence: 77%.
Final level for Rex Hedrick:
30,101, level confidence: 81%.