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Saurav Ghosal v Karim El Hammamy (Thu 08 Feb 2018)

Match won by Saurav Ghosal. Result: 11-3,11-4,11-6.

Starting level for Saurav Ghosal: 43,554, level confidence: 55%.
Starting level for Karim El Hammamy: 24,354, level confidence: 76%. Set manually.
Saurav Ghosal to win as he is currently playing 79% better than Karim El Hammamy.

Saurav Ghosal won all of the games and 72% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 154% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Saurav Ghosal played 154% better than Karim El Hammamy in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Saurav Ghosal actually played at a level of 51,890 and Karim El Hammamy at a level of 20,442. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 19% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 14% and 14% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Saurav Ghosal changes to +14% and Karim El Hammamy changes to -9.9%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Saurav Ghosal becomes +3.1% and for Karim El Hammamy becomes -2.6%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Indian Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Saurav Ghosal: 74%, Karim El Hammamy: 87%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Saurav Ghosal: 62%, Karim El Hammamy: 73%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Saurav Ghosal: 44,476, level confidence: 62%.
Final level for Karim El Hammamy: 23,866, level confidence: 73%.