Rex Hedrick v Shehab Essam (Wed 07 Feb 2018)
Match won by Rex Hedrick. Result: 11-7,11-3,8-11,11-1.
Starting level for
Rex Hedrick:
29,566, level confidence: 63%.
Starting level for
Shehab Essam:
26,115, level confidence: 75%. Set manually.
Rex Hedrick to win as he is currently playing
13% better than Shehab Essam.
Rex Hedrick won 75% of the games and 65% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 86% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Rex Hedrick played
45% better than Shehab Essam in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Rex Hedrick actually played at a level of
33,489 and Shehab Essam at a level of
23,056. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 13% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Rex Hedrick changes to +12% and Shehab Essam changes to -10.2%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Rex Hedrick becomes +3% and for Shehab Essam becomes -2.7%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Indian Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Rex Hedrick: 79%, Shehab Essam: 87%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Rex Hedrick: 70%, Shehab Essam: 76%.
A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Rex Hedrick:
30,298, level confidence: 70%.
Final level for Shehab Essam:
25,520, level confidence: 76%.