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Sumit Gokani v Barrie McLelland (Wed 07 Feb 2018)

Match won by Sumit Gokani. Result: 9-3,9-1,8-10,8-10,9-4.

Starting level for Sumit Gokani: 1,303, level confidence: 68%.
Starting level for Barrie McLelland: 1,796, level confidence: 79%. Set manually.
Barrie McLelland to win as he is currently playing 38% better than Sumit Gokani.

Sumit Gokani won 60% of the games and 61% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 26% (english scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Sumit Gokani played 14% better than Barrie McLelland in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Sumit Gokani actually played at a level of 1,633 and Barrie McLelland at a level of 1,433. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 25% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 21% and 21% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Sumit Gokani changes to +21% and Barrie McLelland changes to -18%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Sumit Gokani becomes +10.5% and for Barrie McLelland becomes -8%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Leicestershire Mens League 2017/18' so the adjustment for Sumit Gokani is +7.9% and for Barrie McLelland is -5.9%.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Barrie McLelland is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Sumit Gokani: 82%, Barrie McLelland: 89%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Sumit Gokani: 66%, Barrie McLelland: 71%.

A final adjustment of +0.9% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Sumit Gokani: 1,403, level confidence: 66%.
Final level for Barrie McLelland: 1,743, level confidence: 71%.