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George Lovatt v Paul Stroud (Tue 06 Feb 2018)

Match won by Paul Stroud. Result: 11-6,5-11,6-11,3-11.

Starting level for George Lovatt: 4,494, level confidence: 66%.
Starting level for Paul Stroud: 6,792, level confidence: 86%. Set manually.
Paul Stroud to win as he is currently playing 51% better than George Lovatt.

Paul Stroud won 75% of the games and 61% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 56% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Paul Stroud played 35% better than George Lovatt in this match.

In this case, Paul Stroud played at level 6,263 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Paul Stroud would normally have been playing at level 6,454 (based on typical behaviour), George Lovatt played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 3.1%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 2.5% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Paul Stroud changes to 0% and George Lovatt changes to +2.5%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Paul Stroud becomes 0% and for George Lovatt becomes +1.5%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Leicestershire Mens League 2017/18' so the adjustment for Paul Stroud is 0% and for George Lovatt is +1.1%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Paul Stroud: 93%, George Lovatt: 81%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Paul Stroud: 88%, George Lovatt: 77%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for George Lovatt: 4,537, level confidence: 77%.
Final level for Paul Stroud: 6,782, level confidence: 88%.