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Ali Jafari v Marcus Hayes (Mon 29 Jan 2018)

Match won by Ali Jafari. Result: 11-3,11-9,11-6.

Starting level for Ali Jafari: 7,153, level confidence: 74%. Set manually.
Starting level for Marcus Hayes: 8,970, level confidence: 45%.
Marcus Hayes to win as he is currently playing 25% better than Ali Jafari.

Ali Jafari won all of the games and 65% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 83% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Ali Jafari played 83% better than Marcus Hayes in this match. An upset!

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Ali Jafari actually played at a level of 10,846 and Marcus Hayes at a level of 5,916. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 52% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 45% and 45% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Ali Jafari changes to +27% and Marcus Hayes changes to -45%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Ali Jafari becomes +7.6% and for Marcus Hayes becomes -10.8%.

Given Ali Jafari's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 8.4% has been applied to his level change.

Given Marcus Hayes's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 14% has been applied to his level change. Looks like he wasn't taking the match too seriously...

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Warwickshire Winter League 2017/18' so the adjustment for Ali Jafari is +5.3% and for Marcus Hayes is -6.9%.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Marcus Hayes is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Ali Jafari: 86%, Marcus Hayes: 67%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Ali Jafari: 57%, Marcus Hayes: 44%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Ali Jafari: 7,519, level confidence: 57%.
Final level for Marcus Hayes: 8,530, level confidence: 44%.