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Chirag Shah v Keith Timms (Tue 23 Jan 2018)

Match won by Keith Timms. Result: 6-11,12-10,9-11,5-11.

Starting level for Chirag Shah: 7,830, level confidence: 70%. Set manually.
Starting level for Keith Timms: 8,821, level confidence: 89%. Set manually.
Keith Timms to win as he is currently playing 13% better than Chirag Shah.

Keith Timms won 75% of the games and 57% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 34% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Keith Timms played 28% better than Chirag Shah in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Keith Timms actually played at a level of 9,406 and Chirag Shah at a level of 7,343. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 6.6% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Keith Timms changes to +4.9% and Chirag Shah changes to -6.2%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Keith Timms becomes +2% and for Chirag Shah becomes -2.4%.

Given Keith Timms's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 14% has been applied to his level change.

Given Chirag Shah's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 10.6% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Middlesex Seniors League' so the adjustment for Keith Timms is +1.3% and for Chirag Shah is -1.6%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Keith Timms: 94%, Chirag Shah: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Keith Timms: 89%, Chirag Shah: 79%.

A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Chirag Shah: 7,723, level confidence: 79%.
Final level for Keith Timms: 8,960, level confidence: 89%.