SquashLevels
Find
Menu
Rankings
 
Help
 
 
 
cookies_acceptance
important
To give you the best experience, we use cookies to remember your settings and personalise your pages and social media. Please click Accept if you are happy for us to do this. To find out more about our use of cookies please see our cookie policy.
 

Marcus Hayes v Paul Stroud (Sat 27 Jan 2018)

Match won by Marcus Hayes. Result: 11-5,11-6,8-11,12-10.

Starting level for Marcus Hayes: 8,193, level confidence: 61%.
Starting level for Paul Stroud: 6,557, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Marcus Hayes to win as he is currently playing 25% better than Paul Stroud.

Marcus Hayes won 75% of the games and 57% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 31% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Marcus Hayes played 27% better than Paul Stroud in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Marcus Hayes actually played at a level of 8,262 and Paul Stroud at a level of 6,502. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 0.8% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0.8% and 0.8% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Marcus Hayes changes to +0.8% and Paul Stroud changes to -0.6%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Marcus Hayes becomes +0.4% and for Paul Stroud becomes -0.4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'North West England Masters 2017/18' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Marcus Hayes: 78%, Paul Stroud: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Marcus Hayes: 77%, Paul Stroud: 84%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Marcus Hayes: 8,213, level confidence: 77%.
Final level for Paul Stroud: 6,524, level confidence: 84%.