Marcus Hayes v Paul Jones (Sat 27 Jan 2018)
Match won by Marcus Hayes. Result: 11-4,11-3,11-6.
Starting level for
Marcus Hayes:
7,551, level confidence: 82%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Paul Jones:
6,545, level confidence: 78%. Set manually.
Marcus Hayes to win as he is currently playing
15% better than Paul Jones.
Marcus Hayes won all of the games and 72% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 154% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Marcus Hayes played
154% better than Paul Jones in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Marcus Hayes actually played at a level of
11,201 and Paul Jones at a level of
4,412. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 48% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Marcus Hayes changes to +42% and Paul Jones changes to -44%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Marcus Hayes becomes +10.7% and for Paul Jones becomes -12%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'North West England Masters 2017/18' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Marcus Hayes is limited to +8.7% and Paul Jones is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Marcus Hayes: 90%, Paul Jones: 88%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Marcus Hayes: 61%, Paul Jones: 60%.
A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Marcus Hayes:
8,196, level confidence: 61%.
Final level for Paul Jones:
6,224, level confidence: 60%.