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Ali Farag v Ramy Ashour (Tue 23 Jan 2018)

Match won by Ali Farag. Result: 11-7,12-10,7-11,11-5.

Starting level for Ali Farag: 60,628, level confidence: 82%. Set manually.
Starting level for Ramy Ashour: 60,559, level confidence: 77%. Set manually.
Ali Farag to win as he is currently playing 0% better than Ramy Ashour.

Ali Farag won 75% of the games and 55% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 24% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Ali Farag played 25% better than Ramy Ashour in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Ali Farag actually played at a level of 67,678 and Ramy Ashour at a level of 54,251. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 12% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Ali Farag changes to +10.9% and Ramy Ashour changes to -12%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Ali Farag becomes +2.4% and for Ramy Ashour becomes -2.6%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Tournament Of Champions' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Ali Farag: 90%, Ramy Ashour: 88%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Ali Farag: 81%, Ramy Ashour: 79%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Ali Farag: 61,895, level confidence: 81%.
Final level for Ramy Ashour: 59,151, level confidence: 79%.