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Ramy Ashour v Paul Coll (Mon 22 Jan 2018)

Match won by Ramy Ashour. Result: 11-4,7-11,11-7,11-4.

Starting level for Ramy Ashour: 59,559, level confidence: 73%. Set manually.
Starting level for Paul Coll: 53,785, level confidence: 63%.
Ramy Ashour to win as he is currently playing 11% better than Paul Coll.

Ramy Ashour won 75% of the games and 61% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 54% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Ramy Ashour played 35% better than Paul Coll in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Ramy Ashour actually played at a level of 65,644 and Paul Coll at a level of 48,799. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 10.2% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Ramy Ashour changes to +8.3% and Paul Coll changes to -9.7%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Ramy Ashour becomes +2% and for Paul Coll becomes -2.3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Tournament Of Champions' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Ramy Ashour: 85%, Paul Coll: 79%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Ramy Ashour: 78%, Paul Coll: 72%.

A final adjustment of +0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Ramy Ashour: 60,559, level confidence: 78%.
Final level for Paul Coll: 52,754, level confidence: 72%.