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Ramy Ashour v Mazen Hesham (Sun 21 Jan 2018)

Match won by Ramy Ashour. Result: 11-5,11-8,13-11.

Starting level for Ramy Ashour: 59,204, level confidence: 59%.
Starting level for Mazen Hesham: 43,689, level confidence: 70%. Set manually.
Ramy Ashour to win as he is currently playing 36% better than Mazen Hesham.

Ramy Ashour won all of the games and 59% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 46% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Ramy Ashour played 49% better than Mazen Hesham in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Ramy Ashour actually played at a level of 62,051 and Mazen Hesham at a level of 41,685. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 4.8% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 4.1% and 4.1% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Ramy Ashour changes to +4.1% and Mazen Hesham changes to -3.5%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Ramy Ashour becomes +1.3% and for Mazen Hesham becomes -1.2%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Tournament Of Champions' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Ramy Ashour: 77%, Mazen Hesham: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Ramy Ashour: 73%, Mazen Hesham: 80%.

A final adjustment of -0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Ramy Ashour: 59,559, level confidence: 73%.
Final level for Mazen Hesham: 43,413, level confidence: 80%.