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Tom Richards v Saurav Ghosal (Sun 21 Jan 2018)

Match won by Tom Richards. Result: 11-8,5-11,11-8,11-7.

Starting level for Tom Richards: 31,316, level confidence: 76%. Set manually.
Starting level for Saurav Ghosal: 45,755, level confidence: 63%.
Saurav Ghosal to win as he is currently playing 46% better than Tom Richards.

Tom Richards won 75% of the games and 53% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 12% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Tom Richards played 21% better than Saurav Ghosal in this match. An upset!

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Tom Richards actually played at a level of 41,575 and Saurav Ghosal at a level of 34,464. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 33% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 26% and 26% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Tom Richards changes to +22% and Saurav Ghosal changes to -26%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Tom Richards becomes +4.7% and for Saurav Ghosal becomes -5.1%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Tournament Of Champions' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Tom Richards: 87%, Saurav Ghosal: 79%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Tom Richards: 66%, Saurav Ghosal: 60%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Tom Richards: 32,684, level confidence: 66%.
Final level for Saurav Ghosal: 43,563, level confidence: 60%.