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Rob Staunton v Marcus Hayes (Sat 20 Jan 2018)

Match won by Rob Staunton. Result: 4-11,11-7,11-7,5-11,11-7.

Starting level for Rob Staunton: 7,405, level confidence: 64%.
Starting level for Marcus Hayes: 7,884, level confidence: 84%. Set manually.
Marcus Hayes to win as he is currently playing 6% better than Rob Staunton.

Rob Staunton won 60% of the games and 49% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was worse by around 2% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Rob Staunton played 7% better than Marcus Hayes in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Rob Staunton actually played at a level of 7,901 and Marcus Hayes at a level of 7,389. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 6.7% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Rob Staunton changes to +6.5% and Marcus Hayes changes to -4.9%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Rob Staunton becomes +2.5% and for Marcus Hayes becomes -2.1%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Warwicks County Closed 2018' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Rob Staunton: 80%, Marcus Hayes: 92%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Rob Staunton: 75%, Marcus Hayes: 86%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Rob Staunton: 7,579, level confidence: 75%.
Final level for Marcus Hayes: 7,712, level confidence: 86%.