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Rob Murfitt v Steven Davies (Wed 24 Jan 2018)

Match won by Steven Davies. Result: 0-3.

Starting level for Rob Murfitt: 2,481, level confidence: 58%.
Starting level for Steven Davies: 8,547, level confidence: 76%. Set manually.
Steven Davies to win as he is currently playing 244% better than Rob Murfitt.

Steven Davies won all of the games. There are no points scores.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This result only has game scores. Less accurate but we can still work with it.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Steven Davies was taking it easy by anything up to 29%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 3,942 and 8,547 without affecting his level.

In this case, Steven Davies played at level 5,129 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Steven Davies would normally have been playing at level 6,059 (based on typical behaviour), Rob Murfitt played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 18%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 9.4% respectively.
Without points scores, the adjustment has been reduced to 5.3%.

As this result doesn't have points scores, the difference in levels is significant and the match was a straight games win, leave the levels unchanged. Provide points scores if you can!

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Steven Davies: 87%, Rob Murfitt: 76%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Steven Davies: 62%, Rob Murfitt: 54%.

A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Rob Murfitt: 2,487, level confidence: 54%.
Final level for Steven Davies: 8,568, level confidence: 62%.