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Fred Holtom v Barrie McLelland (Wed 24 Jan 2018)

Match won by Fred Holtom. Result: 6-11,11-9,11-7,10-12,16-14.

Starting level for Fred Holtom: 1,671, level confidence: 70%. Set manually.
Starting level for Barrie McLelland: 1,855, level confidence: 83%. Set manually.
Barrie McLelland to win as he is currently playing 11% better than Fred Holtom.

Fred Holtom won 60% of the games and 50% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 2% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Fred Holtom played 8% better than Barrie McLelland in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Fred Holtom actually played at a level of 1,829 and Barrie McLelland at a level of 1,694. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 9.5% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Fred Holtom changes to +9% and Barrie McLelland changes to -7.5%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Fred Holtom becomes +4.8% and for Barrie McLelland becomes -4.1%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Warwickshire Winter League 2017/18' so the adjustment for Fred Holtom is +3.6% and for Barrie McLelland is -3.1%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Fred Holtom: 84%, Barrie McLelland: 91%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Fred Holtom: 77%, Barrie McLelland: 83%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Fred Holtom: 1,729, level confidence: 77%.
Final level for Barrie McLelland: 1,797, level confidence: 83%.