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Lee Bartlett v Steven Davies (Mon 22 Jan 2018)

Match won by Steven Davies. Result: 6-15,4-15,6-15.

Starting level for Lee Bartlett: 3,928, level confidence: 84%. Set manually.
Starting level for Steven Davies: 8,373, level confidence: 77%. Set manually.
Steven Davies to win as he is currently playing 113% better than Lee Bartlett.

Steven Davies won all of the games and 74% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 181% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Steven Davies played 181% better than Lee Bartlett in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Steven Davies actually played at a level of 9,618 and Lee Bartlett at a level of 3,420. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 15% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 10% and 10% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Steven Davies changes to +10% and Lee Bartlett changes to -9.1%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Steven Davies becomes +3.3% and for Lee Bartlett becomes -3.7%.

Given Steven Davies's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 12% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Bedfordshire League 2017/2018' so the adjustment for Steven Davies is +2.2% and for Lee Bartlett is -2.8%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Steven Davies: 88%, Lee Bartlett: 92%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Steven Davies: 77%, Lee Bartlett: 80%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Lee Bartlett: 3,816, level confidence: 80%.
Final level for Steven Davies: 8,544, level confidence: 77%.