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Marcus Hayes v Paddy Harrison (Mon 22 Jan 2018)

Match won by Paddy Harrison. Result: 12-10,6-11,7-11,4-11.

Starting level for Marcus Hayes: 7,715, level confidence: 85%. Set manually.
Starting level for Paddy Harrison: 8,369, level confidence: 72%. Set manually.
Paddy Harrison to win as he is currently playing 8% better than Marcus Hayes.

Paddy Harrison won 75% of the games and 60% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 48% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Paddy Harrison played 33% better than Marcus Hayes in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Paddy Harrison actually played at a level of 9,256 and Marcus Hayes at a level of 6,976. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 10.6% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Paddy Harrison changes to +10.2% and Marcus Hayes changes to -8.4%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Paddy Harrison becomes +3.3% and for Marcus Hayes becomes -3%.

Given Paddy Harrison's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 12% has been applied to his level change.

Given Marcus Hayes's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 10.3% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Warwickshire Winter League 2017/18' so the adjustment for Paddy Harrison is +2.2% and for Marcus Hayes is -2%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Paddy Harrison: 85%, Marcus Hayes: 92%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Paddy Harrison: 77%, Marcus Hayes: 83%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Marcus Hayes: 7,551, level confidence: 83%.
Final level for Paddy Harrison: 8,543, level confidence: 77%.